Digressional Districts

The public sector pensioners at the McHenryCountyBlog can be counted on to call a spade a spade -- or in this case to call Joe Walsh the Tip of the Spear ...

"Tip of the Spear" Joe Walsh is Front Page Negative News in Chicago Tribune

But Walsh may have just been caught wetting the tip of his spear because it is indicating that the wind is blowing in the direction of the Eighth Congressional District. Walsh, a victim of redistricting, had been running for re-election in the Fourteenth Congressional District, against Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren. The Daily Herald is now reporting that Walsh may have decided to run in the district he represents, the Eighth:

Eighth District Congressman Joe Walsh is expected to announce as early as the next day or two whether he will run for re-election in a district different from the one where he has already been campaigning. Such a move would allow the McHenry Tea Partyer to avoid a bitter, costly primary fight against a fellow Republican freshman but at the same time would require him to launch a new campaign in a far more Democratic-leaning district.
Walsh might switch districts, announcement expected

It was widely believed that Walsh faced a better chance at beating Hultgren in Fourteen, than beating a generic Democrat in the Eighth. If Walsh does file to run in the Eighth instead, that would indicate he is polling poorly in Fourteen. So poorly, he is being forced to go for broke in Eight.

Randy Hultgren would be the obvious beneficiary of a defection by Walsh. Tammy Duckworth, the likely Democratic nominee in the Eighth District, would also benefit from the opportunity to run against Walsh. Walsh would be harder to beat than the token Republican opposition currently on tap in the Eighth. But Duckworth has already seized the opportunity to fundraise against Walsh, a nationally recognized leftwing bugbear. Ditto goes for Raja Krishnamoorthi -- a possible, but less likely, Democratic nominee in Eight.

The biggest loser is Frank McClatchey, the declared Democratic candidate in the Fourteenth District. McClatchey had an outside chance against a Republican with high negatives like Walsh -- even in a Republican vote sink. But McClatchey, by your LakeCountyEye's reckoning, has no chance at beating a Randy Hultgren.

Other losers would be the McHenryCountyBlog. Walsh would be effectively moving his campaign operation to Schaumburg. Schaumburg is to McHenry County as The Office is to Dukes of Hazzard.

The other big loser is your LakeCountyEye. Without Joe Walsh to kick around any more your LakeCountyEye is on a collision course to losing some serious raison d'etre Mo-Joe.

Say it ain't so, Joe!