The Domino Effect

The Iowa straw poll will be tallied on Aug 13 in Iowa, which means within just a mere 5 weeks there will be a new President of the United States. Lake County naturally is abuzz. As readers of this blog are utterly aware, the odds-on favorite to win the straw poll is Illinois favorite son, Joe Walsh:

Turnouts & Turnovers

So naturally it should come as no surprise that the 8th District Congressman Walsh has other plans -- which is to run for re-election in the 14th Congressional District.

Sharpeyed Operatives™ will observe that Randy Hultgren is the sitting Republican Congressman in the 14th. And in a fair primary fight Hultgren cleans Walsh's clock. If Walsh wants to be the next congressman from the 14th he will have to pull the equivalent of a political ace from his sleeve. Which at this moment is what he is hoping to pull.

Walsh's operatives are pumping the blogosphere with rumors that Peter Roskam -- the sitting Republican Congressman in the 6th -- plans to run for re-election in Walsh's old district, the 8th. For details of the rumor, look no farther than the limited-government government pensioners at the McHenryCountyBlog ...

If Roskam ran in the new 8th, he'd probably win big. He may be the only Republican who could win there. 400,000 of his current constituents live in the new 8th. He [sic] lots of money and name identification. And, he has already beaten Tammy Duckworth once. If he feels strongly enough about Republicans retaining control of the U.S. House, he could make the run. It would pretty much guarantee that the Democrats would not pick up one seat they are counting on. Randy Hultgren could then run in the 14th District and Joe Walsh in the 6th District.
Could Roskam Stun Chicago Democrats by Running in the 8th?

This is known, in politics, as the Domino Effect. Walsh pushes Hultgren out of the 14th and into the 6th. And then Hultgren pushes Roskam out of the 6th and into the 8th.

Why doesn't Walsh just run in the 8th, his own district? Because he can't win there. Compared to the 6th and the 14th, the 8th is more ethnically diverse and contains many more undesirable Democratic voters. Which is why lots of Democrats but no Republicans have announced they are running for election in the 8th.

Your LakeCountyEye notes that if the dominoes do fall exactly as Walsh hopes, it's Roskam who winds up the low man on the totem pole.